Groundwork — Product Roadmap 2026

Core Objective

North Star Metrics

Groundwork's success is measured by the degree to which it reduces friction, mistrust, and financial surprise in the US home renovation market. These four metrics act as the compass for every product decision.

📊

Active Projects Tracked

Target: 50,000 by Mo 36

The primary volume signal. A project "tracked" means at least one homeowner and one contractor are actively using the Shared Reality Dashboard throughout a live renovation.

⭐

Homeowner NPS

Target: 60+ by Mo 12

Net Promoter Score among homeowners who complete a project on Groundwork. Renovation is high-emotion; NPS above 60 signals genuine pain relief, not just utility.

📈

Timeline Variance Reduction

Target: 30% reduction by Mo 18

Average gap between projected and actual completion date for projects on Groundwork vs. industry baseline. The core product promise, made measurable. Industry baseline: 46% of contractor-led projects face significant delays.

💻

Contractor Adoption Rate

Target: 40% weekly active by Mo 12

Share of onboarded contractors logging at least one update per week. Given 70% of contractors have no tech roadmap, sustained adoption is the hardest and most valuable signal to move.

Strategic Context

Why Now, Why Denver

The conditions for a transparency platform have converged: a historically large market, a measurable trust deficit, a low-tech supply side ripe for disruption, and a competitor signal that the space is heating up.

Market Pain — The Trust Deficit

78% of homeowners exceed budget when using a contractor

46% face significant delays on contractor-led projects

87% face at least one major challenge during renovation

Launch City — Denver Rationale

Strong renovation market with high median project spend

Tech-forward homeowner demographic, above-average digital adoption

Not saturated unlike NYC/SF — manageable density for seed network

Supply Side Opportunity

70% of contractors have no technology roadmap

690K remodeling businesses in the US — vast addressable supply

Low-tech means product must be contractor-lightweight to get adoption

Revenue Model

Free for all homeowners — removes adoption friction on demand side

$49–$199 per month contractor SaaS tiers — value-based, not feature-gated noise

$1M+ ARR target by end of Month 36

Visual Timeline

36-Month Gantt View

Each row represents a major product or business initiative. Month columns are to scale. Milestones are marked with diamonds.

Ph0: Foundation

Ph1: MVP Launch

Ph2: Full Season

Ph3: Monetize

Ph4: Regional

Ph5: National

Milestone

Mo 1–3

Mo 4–6

Mo 7–12

Mo 13–18

Mo 19–24

Mo 25–36

Core Platform

Infra & APIs

Dashboard + Daily Digest

Change Orders + Expected Date Engine

AI Delay Prediction + Mobile

Permit Data Layer

Denver APIs

Verify + Enrich

City 2 APIs

5-City

20-City National Data Fabric

Contractor Network

Recruit 20

Grow to 50 — Denver

SaaS Tiers + Multi-City

Marketplace + Certifications

Revenue Engine

Free for all (growth mode)

$49–199/mo SaaS

Lender Partnerships

Marketplace + $1M+ ARR

Geo Expansion

Denver (City 1)

City 2 (Austin/Portland)

5 Cities

20 Cities — National

Team Scale

3–4 FTE

8 FTE (Seed raise)

15–20 FTE (Series A)

40–60 FTE (Series B)

Milestones

Core Infra

Beta Launch

500 Homeowners

SaaS On

$30K MRR

$150K MRR

$1M+ ARR

Execution Plan

Six Phases — Foundation to National

Each phase has a single overriding goal. Features within a phase are sequenced by dependency and validated against the north star before entering the build queue.

Foundation

Months 1 – 3 | Pre-Market

Build the technical and supply-side foundation before a single homeowner touches the product. No shortcuts — data quality and contractor trust are non-negotiable before launch.

Aggregate Denver permit data via public APIs — build reliable, auto-refreshing pipeline
Core platform infrastructure: auth, project data model, notification system
Recruit and onboard 20 Denver contractors — manual outreach, white-glove setup
Contractor onboarding playbook: 10-minute setup target, mobile-first input forms
Define data schema for Shared Reality Dashboard — homeowner-readable status model
Internal admin tools for permit data QA and anomaly flagging

20 contractors onboarded Denver permit pipeline live Data freshness <24h Infra load-tested

MVP Launch

Months 4 – 6 | Beta

Prove the core value proposition with real homeowners and contractors in Denver before spending a dollar on growth. Free for all parties during beta to maximize feedback velocity.

Shared Reality Dashboard — single source of truth for project status, timeline, and issues
Daily Digest — contractor-generated, homeowner-readable morning update (SMS + email)
100 beta homeowners — recruited through contractor network, not paid acquisition
Permit status auto-sync — homeowners see permit state without calling City Hall
Basic change order logging — timestamp, description, rough cost impact
NPS survey at 30-day and project-completion checkpoints

100 beta homeowners NPS baseline set 40% contractor WAU 3 project completions

First Full Season

Months 7 – 12 | Product-Market Fit

Scale within Denver through one complete renovation season — summer through fall. Ship the two features that transform Groundwork from "nice to have" into "can't manage without."

Expected Date Engine — ML-driven timeline prediction using permit data, weather, permit type, and contractor history
Change Order Audit — structured change order workflow with homeowner approval gate, before/after cost tracking
Passive Heartbeat v1 — lightweight weekly contractor check-in: "On track / Delayed / Blocked"
Photo documentation layer — contractors upload progress photos tied to project milestones
Scale to 500 homeowners, 50 contractors in Denver
Begin city selection analysis for Phase 3 expansion (Austin vs. Portland scoring model)

500 homeowners 50 contractors NPS 60+ Timeline variance -20% Change order adoption 60%

Expand & Monetize

Months 13 – 18 | Revenue On

Turn validated PMF into revenue. Launch contractor SaaS tiers, enter a second city, and introduce the Contract Health Score — the signature feature that creates defensible contractor differentiation.

Contractor SaaS tiers: Starter $49/mo (5 active projects), Pro $99/mo (unlimited + analytics), Studio $199/mo (team + API access)
Contract Health Score — algorithmic composite: on-time rate, change order frequency, communication consistency, homeowner NPS
City 2 launch — Austin (primary) or Portland (alt), depending on Phase 2 city scoring model
Contractor profile pages — public-facing portfolio with verified project data, not self-reported
Homeowner referral engine — structured referral program to drive organic homeowner growth
Basic lender integration research — identify 2–3 renovation loan partners for Phase 4

$30K MRR by Mo 18 2 cities live 150+ paying contractors Churn <5%/mo

Regional Expansion

Months 19 – 24 | Scale

Prove the city-launch playbook is repeatable and unlock a new revenue layer through financial partnerships. Expand to 5 cities while deepening the product moat with payment milestone tracking.

5-city rollout using the city-launch playbook refined in Denver and City 2
Payment milestone tracking — tie Groundwork status updates to draw schedule and disbursement triggers
Passive Heartbeat v2 — automated delay prediction alerts to homeowners, not just manual check-ins
Lender partnership integrations — 2–3 renovation loan providers using Groundwork project data as risk signal
Contractor marketplace alpha — homeowners in active cities can discover verified Groundwork contractors
Series A preparation — data room, cohort retention analysis, city expansion unit economics

$150K MRR by Mo 24 5 cities active 500+ paying contractors Lender integrations 2+

National Platform

Months 25 – 36 | Category Leadership

Achieve national coverage, launch mobile apps, and introduce AI-powered delay prediction to create a compounding data moat. Become the default infrastructure layer for US residential renovation transparency.

20-city expansion with automated permit data onboarding (reduced manual API integration per city)
Native iOS + Android apps for homeowners and contractors — offline-capable for job sites
AI delay prediction model — trained on 3 years of Groundwork project data, weather, permit type, contractor history
Contractor marketplace — full launch with search, verified reviews, and project-matched recommendations
Groundwork Certified — contractor certification program with verified on-time and on-budget track record
API/data licensing to title companies, insurance providers, and home warranty platforms
Home inspection + warranty integrations for post-completion coverage

$1M+ ARR by Mo 36 20 cities 50,000 projects tracked Timeline variance -30% AI model accuracy 80%+

Cross-Functional View

Swimlane Table

Each lane represents a functional area. This view ensures no discipline falls behind during high-velocity phases and surfaces cross-team dependencies before they become blockers.

Lane	Ph 0 Mo 1–3	Ph 1 Mo 4–6	Ph 2 Mo 7–12	Ph 3 Mo 13–18	Ph 4 Mo 19–24	Ph 5 Mo 25–36
Product	Build Permit API pipeline Core data model Admin QA tools	Launch Shared Reality Dashboard Daily Digest (SMS/email) Basic change order log	Deepen Expected Date Engine Change Order Audit Photo documentation Passive Heartbeat v1	Monetize SaaS tier gating Contract Health Score Contractor profiles Referral engine	Scale Payment milestone tracking Passive Heartbeat v2 Marketplace alpha 5-city playbook	Platform iOS + Android apps AI delay prediction Full marketplace API/data licensing Certified contractor program
Growth	Recruit 20 contractors (manual outreach) Build contractor onboarding playbook Identify 100 beta homeowner targets	Launch beta — 100 homeowners via contractor network NPS measurement framework Word-of-mouth feedback loops	Scale to 500 homeowners, 50 contractors Denver content + local SEO Contractor referral incentives	City 2 launch (Austin/Portland) Homeowner referral program PR around Contract Health Score	5-city rollout — standardized launch kit Contractor marketplace drives organic discovery Lender co-marketing	20-city national expansion Groundwork Certified brand campaign Insurance/warranty partner channels
Revenue	Revenue model finalized Pricing page designed (not live)	Free for all — no friction Track engagement metrics to inform tier design	Freemium soft ceiling tested with power users Pricing research with willing-to-pay interviews	Starter $49 / Pro $99 / Studio $199 per month Annual plans with 2-month discount Target: $30K MRR by Mo 18	Lender referral revenue share Marketplace listing fees Target: $150K MRR by Mo 24	API/data licensing to title, insurance Certified contractor premium tier Target: $1M+ ARR by Mo 36
Team	Co-founders + 1 eng + 1 ops 3–4 FTE total Advisory: 1 construction, 1 SaaS	+1 full-stack engineer +1 Denver market specialist (contractor relations)	Seed raise closes Grow to 8 FTE First dedicated customer success hire	Grow to 12–15 FTE Head of Sales hired City expansion manager role	Series A closes Grow to 20 FTE Data science hire for AI model	Series B closes 40–60 FTE Regional GMs Platform / API team formed
Partnerships	City of Denver permit data agreement Identify contractor association contacts	Informal relationships with 2–3 Denver supplier/trade networks	Explore City 2 permit data agreements First home inspector partnership discussions	Renovation lender outreach: RenoFi, GreenSky, LightStream Contractor association endorsements (2 cities)	2–3 lender integrations live Title company data pilots Home warranty provider MoU	Insurance data licensing agreements National contractor association partnerships NAHB relationship for Certified program

Risk Management

Key Risks & Mitigations

Identified risks are scored by likelihood and impact. Each has a named mitigation strategy and an owner category. Risks are re-evaluated at each phase gate.

Risk	Phase	Severity	Description & Impact	Mitigation Strategy
Contractor Adoption Stalls	Ph 1–2	High	70% of contractors lack tech fluency. If weekly active usage falls below 30%, Daily Digest loses value and homeowners churn. The entire model collapses without consistent contractor input.	White-glove onboarding for first 50. SMS-first (no app required in early phases). "10-minute-per-week" positioning. Dedicated contractor success rep in Denver.
Permit API Instability	Ph 0–3	High	City permit systems are notoriously unreliable. If Denver's API goes down or changes format, the core data layer breaks — destroying the "automatic transparency" promise for homeowners.	Build redundant scraping fallback alongside API. Daily health checks with automated alerts. 24h data freshness SLA, not real-time dependency. Document city data relationships carefully.
Block+BuildZoom Moves into Transparency	Ph 1–3	High	The November 2025 acquisition shows the incumbent is building a full pipeline. If they ship in-project tracking within 12 months, the first-mover window closes before Groundwork achieves PMF.	Accelerate MVP to Mo 6. Focus on contractor trust, not just homeowner features — Block's supply is already using their platform. Groundwork's data moat (permit + behavioral) is the long-term differentiator.
Pricing Resistance at SaaS Launch	Ph 3	Medium	Contractors who adopted Groundwork for free may churn when paid tiers launch. 70% have no tech budget. Premature monetization could hollow out the network before it reaches critical mass.	Maintain generous free tier (3 active projects) indefinitely. Grandfather early adopters at reduced rates. Launch paid tiers 12+ months after first contractor touchpoint. Tie upgrade to demonstrable ROI (saved hours, homeowner retention).
City Expansion Unit Economics	Ph 3–4	Medium	Each new city requires permit API negotiation, local contractor recruitment, and market-specific compliance. If CAC per city exceeds projections, the 5-city and 20-city plans become cash-negative.	Document Denver launch cost precisely. Build a repeatable city-launch kit (playbook, templates, supplier contacts). Only launch City 2 when Denver unit economics are fully proven. Use City 2 to validate playbook efficiency.
Data Privacy & Permit Data Liability	Ph 0+	Medium	Public permit data displayed alongside homeowner PII creates legal exposure. Homeowners may not expect renovation details to be visible through Groundwork's platform.	Legal review before launch. Clear privacy tiers: what's public permit data vs. private project data. Give homeowners explicit control over data sharing with future partners (lenders, insurers).
AI Model Accuracy (Phase 5)	Ph 5	Medium	Delay prediction is only valuable if accurate. A model that over-predicts delays erodes trust. Under-predicts and it's useless. Needs 3 years of clean data to train reliably.	Launch as "Beta Estimate" — clear uncertainty ranges, not point predictions. Human-in-the-loop for edge cases in early versions. Measure model accuracy quarterly and surface it publicly as a trust signal.
Seed Raise Timing	Ph 2–3	Low	If seed raise is delayed past Month 9, the team cannot scale to 8 FTE in time to execute the Phase 3 monetization roadmap without cutting scope.	Begin investor outreach at Month 6 (not 9). Use beta NPS and contractor retention data as proof points. Maintain 6-month runway at all times. Identify bridge options.
Seasonal Revenue Concentration	Ph 3+	Low	Home renovation is highly seasonal — Q2/Q3 heavy. MRR may swing dramatically by quarter, creating cash flow planning challenges and misrepresenting growth trajectory.	Annual contractor subscriptions mitigate seasonality (locking in winter MRR). Track cohort retention by season. Multi-city presence smooths some seasonality via climate differences.

Financial Planning

Investment Requirements

Investment estimates reflect AI-assisted development efficiency and lean early team structure. Figures represent total capital deployed per phase, not external raise amounts.

Phase 0 — Mo 1–3

$150K

Founders + 1–2 engineers. Permit API setup, core infra, contractor recruitment. Bootstrap or pre-seed.

Phase 1 — Mo 4–6

$200K

MVP development and launch. 2 additional hires. Beta homeowner program. Begin seed raise preparation.

Phase 2 — Mo 7–12

$500K

Seed round closes (~$1.5M). Expected Date Engine + Change Order Audit. 8 FTE. Full Denver season.

Phase 3 — Mo 13–18

$800K

SaaS tier launch, City 2, Contract Health Score. Sales and CS headcount. Remaining seed runway.

Phase 4 — Mo 19–24

$3–5M

Series A (~$5–8M). 5-city rollout, lender partnerships, marketplace alpha. 20 FTE. $150K MRR drives path to profitability case.

Phase 5 — Mo 25–36

$10–15M

Series B (~$15–25M). 20-city national, mobile apps, AI model. 40–60 FTE. Platform and data licensing. $1M+ ARR target.

Revenue Progression

Mo 6

Pre-revenue
Validation

Mo 12

PMF proven
Seed closed

Mo 18

$30K

MRR
2 cities

Mo 24

$150K

MRR
5 cities

Mo 36

$83K+

MRR (~$1M ARR)
20 cities

Strategic Summary

The Core Bet

Groundwork is not a project management tool. It is a trust infrastructure layer for an industry where 78% of homeowners go over budget and 87% face serious problems — despite hiring professionals. The product succeeds not by managing contractors, but by making the state of every project legible to everyone involved, in near-real time, with almost no effort required from the lowest-tech participant: the contractor.

The moat is the data. Every project logged, every timeline variance captured, every change order audited — this corpus becomes the AI delay prediction model, the Contract Health Score, the lender risk signal, the insurance underwriting input. No competitor can replicate three years of behavioral renovation data by acquiring another company.

$509B addressable market 12-month first-mover window Data moat via behavioral corpus Contractor-lightweight by design